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Election slowed momentum

TomS - Head Tom Simper Jul 17, 2024, 10:00 AM

The RICS net balance indicator reports the balance of surveyors expecting a price rise versus a price fall. It tends to accurately predict price trends 3 to 6 months ahead.

The RICS indicator had been consistently improving since September 2023 but fell back slightly in May and June as the election approached. The push back of expected interest rate cuts to the second half of 2024, would also have been a factor in addition to political uncertainty.

With a new Labour government and greater political clarity, coupled with the real prospect of Bank of England rate cuts on the horizon, this indicator should renew its upward trajectory shortly. Heralding modestly stronger house price growth too. Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, RICS, Land Registry. July 2024

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